Eight Predictions for 2009

The new year is already one week old, and the Christmas break is over. Time to post some predictions for 2009.

1. As brands struggle in a difficult economy, some of them will open up, listen to and talk with the consumer.
2. Brands and big corporations will shift marketing budgets online, since the Internet is now by far the most efficient marketing channel.
3. In 2009, performance marketing (SEM, affiliate) revenue in Germany will beat classical display online advertising. Even display advertising will be billed more and more by perfomance rather than by CPM.
4. The new media service ranking top ten will get re-sorted. But even more interesting is next year's ranking, based on revenues in 2009.
5. Print will increasingly be under pressure. In the US, some major newspapers will reduce their print editions or even stop the presses. In Germany, mostly the publishing houses' staff will be cut. There is no way to generate enough money on the web for them to retain their usual headcount.
6. Old Media will aquire blogs, even in Germany, to gain awareness. Problem: There aren't many professionally run blogs in Germany.
7. Holtzbrinck will try really hard to get the money back they invested in StudiVZ. GWP is not able to sell advertising on StudiVZ and will be replaced. It's too late now to sell StudiVZ to Facebook. In the end, we will see a distress sale.
8. Cloud computing will take off. Both in buzzwording and usage.

What do you think?